How Accurate Is the Zestimate in Denver? What Zillow's Own Numbers Say

Last updated: October 13, 2026

If you own a home in the Denver area, you have probably looked up your Zestimate. Probably more than once. You may also have heard an agent say the number is useless.

I am not going to tell you that. Zillow publishes its own accuracy figures for each large metro area, and Denver's are better than most. So how accurate is the Zestimate in Denver? Here is what Zillow's table says, what those numbers leave out, and what I look at that a model cannot.

How Accurate Is the Zestimate in Denver, by Zillow's Own Count

Zillow compares its estimates with what homes later sold for and posts the results for 38 metro areas on its Zestimate page. The figures here are from the table as refreshed on October 12, 2026. Zillow updates it, so the numbers you see there may have moved a little.

For homes that are not listed for sale, which Zillow calls off-market, the Denver metro has a median error of 5.23%. The nationwide figure is 7.20%. Sort the 38 metros by that number and Denver comes in fifth best. Las Vegas is first at 4.72%, and Pittsburgh is last at 10.47%.

That is a good result. In most of the country, the Zestimate misses by more than it does here.

Fort Collins and Colorado Springs are in the same range

All three Front Range metros in the table land in the top six:

Colorado Springs: 5.01% median error, third of 38
Denver: 5.23%, fifth
Fort Collins: 5.35%, sixth

If you own in Northern Colorado or in the Springs, the rest of this post applies to you too.

One gap in the table right now

Zillow also reports accuracy for homes that are listed for sale. On October 9 and again on October 13, 2026, every on-market figure in that table read "NA," for every metro and for the country as a whole. A different Zillow page still gives a nationwide on-market median error of 1.83%, with no date attached.

Until the table shows those numbers again, I am sticking with the off-market figures. They are also the ones that fit a homeowner who has not listed.

What a 5.23% Median Error Leaves Out

Half of homes miss by more

A median is the midpoint. Half of the Denver homes in Zillow's sample sold within 5.23% of their Zestimate, and the other half missed by more. I wrote about why the choice of statistic matters in how to read Denver's days-on-market data, and the same care applies here.

Zillow's other columns show how far the misses go. In the Denver metro:

48.29% of Zestimates landed within 5% of the sale price
75.07% landed within 10%
92.23% landed within 20%

Turn those around. About half miss by more than 5%. About one in four misses by more than 10%. About one in thirteen misses by more than 20%.

In dollars, Zillow puts the average home value in the city of Denver at $524,695, updated August 31, 2026. On a home at that value, a 5.23% miss is about $27,400. A 10% miss is about $52,500, and a 20% miss is about $105,000. The value is for the city and the error rate is for the metro, so read that as an illustration. The table also does not say whether the misses run high or low.

The count only includes homes that sold

Here is how Zillow describes its method: "For off-market homes, we evaluate accuracy by comparing the Zestimate generated prior to a home's sale with the final recorded sale price once the home sells. Only homes that eventually sell are included in these accuracy calculations."

That is a fair way to score an estimate, since a sale price is the only answer key. It also means the 5.23% describes homes that went on to sell. If you are not selling, your home is not in that sample, and the table cannot tell you how close your number is. The page does not say how long before the sale each Zestimate was taken.

Once you list, your price becomes an input

Zillow says that for homes on the market, "the Zestimate includes listing information such as the list price." It then measures on-market accuracy from "the Zestimate shown before the home goes pending."

By that point, the estimate has seen the price the seller chose. Zillow says Zestimates "tend to be more accurate for homes that are on the market," and that helps a buyer sizing up a listing. For an owner deciding what to list at, the off-market figure is the one that applies. Once a home is listed, the Zestimate can take in the asking price itself, so the on-market accuracy answers a different question.

What an Automated Estimate Cannot See

Zillow is open about what goes into the number: county and tax assessor records, MLS feeds, comparable homes in the area and market trends. It applies the model "using standardized data such as bedroom and bathroom counts, square footage, lot size, tax assessments and prior sales." It draws on an area "much larger than your neighborhood," up to the size of a county. And it says its method "differs from that of a comparative market analysis completed by a real estate agent."

A model can only weigh what is in that data. When I price a home, here is what I look at that an automated estimate cannot see:

The condition of the home and those around it. Records give a model your bedroom count and square footage, and what the neighbors sold for. They do not say what shape any of those homes are in today.
The upkeep and feel of the neighborhood. You notice it standing on the street. It is not a field in a record.
How desirable a specific area is. A model picks up location through nearby sale prices. The finer grain, one pocket against the next, is harder to pull out of the data.
Public records that are wrong or out of date. Zillow's page says, "Unreported additions, updates and remodels aren't reflected in the Zestimate." Tax assessments are one of its inputs, and Colorado revalues real property every odd-numbered year. The values metro Denver assessors announced in 2025 reflect June 30, 2024, so the assessed value on record today is a snapshot from more than two years ago.
Sales that should not count. Some homes get "given away," and some sell too high for one reason or another. Neither should change the value of the homes around them. Zillow says it leaves foreclosure sales out of the model. Other odd sales take someone reading each comp to catch.

How to Use Your Zestimate

Think of it like a weather forecast. A forecast that is usually within a few degrees is a good forecast, and you would still look at the sky before pouring concrete.

Read the range before the number. Zillow shows an estimated sales range next to the Zestimate and describes it as "the span of prices the home could reasonably sell for."

Check your home facts. If the bedroom count, bathroom count or square footage on Zillow is wrong, you can correct it. Zillow says Zestimates for most homes update multiple times per week.

Do not read too much into a drop. In November 2025, Zillow reported that 90.6% of homes in the Denver metro had lost value over the prior year, "as measured by their Zestimate." CBS Colorado reported that as the highest share in the country. Zillow's own researcher added that "relatively few are selling at a loss." A falling estimate and a sale at a loss are two different events.

Get a second number before a real decision. Zillow itself encourages owners to "supplement the Zestimate with other research," including an appraisal or a comparative market analysis from an agent. What I tell sellers who come in with the Zillow number in mind is simple. Do not base your expectations on the Zestimate. Have a professional give you an actual value, with the data and facts to back it up.

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